REVEALED: Copy of Fowler’s Response to Query from Abba Kyari

REVEALED: Copy of Fowler’s Response to Query from Abba Kyari


I refer to your letter dated 8th August, 2019 on the above subject matter and hereby submit a comprehensive variance analysis between budgeted and actual collections for each main tax item for the period 2012-2018 as requested (see appendix 1).

Your letter stated that actual collections for a 3-year period were significantly worse than what was collected between 2012 and 2014. The total collection for the period was N14,527.85 trillion, while the total actual collection between 2016 to 2018 was N12,656.30 trillion. The highlight of these collection figures was that during the period 2012 to 2014, out of the N14,527.85, oil revenue accounted for N8,321.64 trillion or 57.28 % while non-oil accounted for N6,206.22 or 42.72% and during the later period of 2016 to 2018 out of the N12,656.30 trillion, oil revenue accounted for N7,510.42 trillion or 59.35%. FIRS has control of non-oil revenue collection figures while oil revenue collection figures are subject to more external forces as highlighted below.

From the above, the non-oil revenue collection grew by N1,304.20 trillion or 21% within the period 2016 to 2018.

Kindly note that the total budget collection figure during 2012 to 2014 stood at N12,190.52 trillion compared to N16,771.78 trillion for the period 2016 to 2018 which represent an increase of 37.58%.

However, going by non-oil tax types there has been an increase as follows:

Tax Type 2012 to 2014 (Nb) 2016-2018 (Nb)

CIT 2,957.50 3,488.90

Gas Income 35.18 196.68

Capital Gains Tax 31.20 115.17

Stamp Duty 25.92 30.62

VAT (Non-Import &Export) 2,316.19 2,908. 57

Education Tax 657.39 488.35

Personal Income Tax 152.46 252.28

NITDEF 28.88 28.72

Please note that the variance in the budgeted and actual revenue collection performance of the Service for the period 2016 to 2018 was mainly attributed to the following reasons:

The low inflow of oil revenues for the period especially Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) was due to fall in price of crude oil and reduction of crude oil production. Notwithstanding government efforts to diversify the economy, oil revenues remains an important component of total revenues accruable to the Federation. The price of crude oil fell from an average of $113.72, $110.98 and $100.40 per barrel in 2012, 2013 and 2014 to $52.65, $43.80 and $54.08 per barrel in 2015, 2016 and 2017. There was also a reduction in crude oil production from 2.31 mbpd, 1.81 mbpd and 1.88mbpd in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The  Nigerian economy also went into recession in the second quarter of 2016 which slowed down general economic activities. Tax revenue collection (CIT and VAT) being a function of economic activities were negatively affected but actual collection of the above two taxes were still higher in 2016 to 2018 than in 2012 to 2014. During the years 2012,2013 and 2014, GDP grew by 4.3%, 5.4% and 6.3% while in 2015,2016 and 2017, there was a decline in growth to 2.7%, 1.6% and 1.9% respectively. The tax revenue grew as the economy recovered in the second quarter of 2017.It worthy of note that strategies and initiatives adopted in collection of VAT during the period 2015-2017 led to approximately 40% increase over 2012-2014 collections. In 2014 the VAT collected was N802 billion, compared to N1.1 trillion in 2018. This increase is attributable to various initiatives such as ICT innovations, continuous taxpayer education, taxpayer enlightenment, etc embarked upon by the Service. Furthermore, it is pertinent to note that when this administration came on board in August 2015, the target by the two major non-oil taxes were increased by 52% for VAT and 45% for CIT. Notwithstanding the increase, FIRS has in line with the Federal government’s revenue base diversification strategy has grown the non-oil tax collection by over N1.304 trillion(21%) when the total non-oil tax collection for 2016-2018 is compared to th

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